In 2024, Yordan Alvarez, outfielder/designated hitter for the Houston Astros, was voted an All-Star starter as a DH and All-Star for his third consecutive year and finished top 10 in AL MVP voting. His stats on the year speak for themselves: his 0.397 wOBA was in the 96th percentile, his 16.7 barrel% was in the 91st percentile, his 35 HRs was in the 94th percentile, and his 107 mph EV90 was in the 94th percentile, across all qualifying MLB hitters. This project will investigate how he had such a successful season by looking at the quality of his contact, how he approached two-strike counts, and more.
In two strikes, hitters are taught to essentially protect the zone by shortening up/flattening their swing to prevent a strikeout and stay alive, referred to as a "B" swing. As a result, hitters are improving their ability to make contact, however, the quality of that contact often declines, meaning contact% may rise, but your overall offensive output in wOBA may fall. Yordan’s numbers in two-strike counts tell a different story: he's making just as much contact than in zero strikes, and still ranking as one of the league’s top hitters, as seen in this scatter plot to the right. So what is he doing different than the norm?
Well Yordan’s numbers, in comparison to the rest of the league, offer insight into how he’s able to survive and be successful in two-strike counts. Looking at the radar plot, we can see his high chase% and oppo% immediately stand out. While swinging out of the zone is typically seen as a negative, Yordan is able to balance this out by hitting the ball the other way. He’s able to hit the ball against the right-side shift, which is valuable in two strikes, but this is typically at the cost of some power. However, we can see that he is still barreling the ball at a well above average rate in two strikes.
The side-by-side strike zone heatmaps (measuring contact%) reveal a significant difference in Yordan’s contact profile from zero strikes to two strikes. With no strikes, he focuses on making contact on and swinging at pitches pretty much only inside and over the heart of the plate, aligning with his natural swing path. However, with two strikes, his contact profile is completely different. He's having to expand his zone and make contact mostly away due to being pitched away. This shows his ability to adjust his approach down in the count and maintain consistent contact quality while swinging out of his "comfort zone".
Recently, Baseball Savant released new metrics to help characterize the geometry of a hitter’s swing: attack angle (º), attack direction (º), and swing path (tilt) (º). More can be found here. This allows us to perform further analysis and explore potential relationships between these swing characteristics and batted-ball outcomes like wOBA, contact%, groundball%, and more.
These histograms show how the variance in each swing angle changes across all hitters between zero-strike and two-strike counts. A higher variance indicates a greater degree of adjustment in that specific angle, and Yordan ranks in the 96th percentile for attack angle variance. This suggests that he's making significant swing adjustments in response to pitches mostly on the outer-half of the zone. Although his contact% is basically identical between zero and two strikes, he's showing that he has a more dynamic swing approach that allows him to adjust to pitch location and still drive the ball when pitchers make a mistake. The red line on the histograms highlights his percentile rank, showing just how much more he’s changing his swing in that angle compared to the rest of the league. Click on the arrows to look through the graphs and explore the distribution of each angle more in detail.
Below are scatter plots showing how changes in the variance of these swing angles relate to key outcome metrics, along with an interactive sandbox dashboard.
Use these tools to explore league-wide trends, evaluate how Yordan’s two-strike approach is justified,
and compare how your favorite player adjusts and how much better/worse their outcomes are between zero-strike and two-strike counts.
Note: the data used came from qualified hitters from the 2024 MLB season (had to have had at least 502 PAs during the season, including playoffs).
While the scatter plots suggest there lies some correlation between changing up your swing mechanics and outcomes, these newly introduced swing angles offer a clearer picture instead: there isn't a one-size-fits-all solution for two-strike approaches. Different combinations of mechanical adjustments can benefit players in different ways instead. Hitters who understand the geometry of their own swing could potentially tailor the changes of their swings to maintain performance in two strikes. Managers and coaches could also use these angles to gain some analytical insights into a player's tendencies, and even optimize lineup decisions as a result. It's important to recognize that these angles exist within a broader context, as there are lots of confounding factors that all play a critical role in a hitter's success and approach in two strikes. Therefore, while these new swing angles can provide valuable insight into a hitter's swing, they should be used alongside other data/metrics to form a more complete understanding of two-strike hitting.
For further reading, check out the following resources: